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Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

"The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The industrial detail provided by these measures helps illuminate structural developments in the economy."
- Federal Reserve

What is it?

This report has two components: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. Industrial Production is a measure of the physical output of US factories, mines, and utilities. The utilities component can be quite volatile, because weather changes create wide swings in the level of demand for utilities. Capacity Utilization is calculated by taking the above Industrial Production figure and dividing it into overall production capacity.

This report frequently moves markets. Many consider the data timely and useful. They see the Industrial Production number as a key factory sector indicator, and they look to the Capacity Utilization figure as a reliable indicator of inflation. The thinking is that as Capacity Utilization increases (especially above 85%), more inflationary pressure is placed on the economy as available production "slack" is removed.

Many others disagree, however, and they do not trust the report 100%. Primarily, these detractors say that actual capacity is impossible to estimate reliably. This would make the Capacity Utilization number suspect in their eyes, and they rely on additional supporting data beyond the report in order to draw conclusions.

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