TransUnion.com Mortgage Trend Analysis Finds That Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates Expected to Rise More Than 34 Percent by Year End

Analysis of trends in the mortgage industry during the 4th quarter of 2007 was made available today on TransUnion.com. The report is the third in an ongoing series of quarterly consumer lending sector analyses focusing on credit card, auto loan and mortgage data to be released on TransUnion's Web site.

Mortgage Statistics

Average mortgage debt per mortgage borrower nationally fell (-3.92 percent) from the previous quarter to $191,370. To no surprise, the largest state average was in California at $361,387 followed by the District of Columbia at $351,690 and Hawaii at $302,373. The lowest average mortgage debt was in West Virginia at $93,891.

Only two states showed any increases in average mortgage debt from the previous quarter -- Hawaii (0.31 percent) and Alaska (0.22 percent), with West Virginia showing the smallest percent decline (-0.11 percent). Georgia experienced the largest drop in average mortgage debt (-6.4 percent), followed by Massachusetts (-5.87 percent).

Mortgage loan delinquency (the percentage of mortgage borrowers 60 or more days past due) hit a national average of 2.99 percent in the fourth quarter, up almost 17 percent over the previous quarter. It was highest in Nevada (4.68 percent), followed closely by Florida (4.49 percent). The lowest mortgage delinquency rates were found in North Dakota (1.13 percent), Alaska (1.23 percent) and Montana (1.34 percent).

Mortgage Analysis

'The market continues to see the effect of the mortgage crisis in the steeply increasing mortgage delinquency rates among borrowers across the country,' said Keith Carson, a senior consultant in TransUnion's financial services group.

The top three areas showing the greatest growth in delinquency from previous quarters were Florida (34 percent), California (33 percent) and Arizona (32 percent). States such as Alaska and Montana actually experienced a drop in their delinquency rates over the previous quarter (-21 percent and -5.6 percent, respectively).

'Mortgage debt, on the other hand, is experiencing a downward slide not seen since 2005,' Carson said. 'This is a direct result of the mortgage crisis and problems surrounding the housing markets. As home prices decline across most of the nation, the supply exceeds demand and buyers have their pick at the best deals for the money, especially for first-time shoppers who tend to concentrate on lower price houses. Moreover, lending policies have recently been showing increased scrutiny for mortgage loan applications, especially at the high end where risk to the lender may be greatest.'

Mortgage Forecast

The national 60-day mortgage borrower delinquency rate is expected to continue to rise throughout 2008 from a value of nearly 3.0 percent in the 4th quarter of 2007 to 4.0 percent or greater by year end. This is primarily due to the continued deterioration in economic activity throughout the country combined with the consequences of the mortgage crisis. However, in 2009 the rise in mortgage delinquency rates is expected to taper off as economic conditions improve and home prices begin to stabilize. As far as state projections go, Nevada (9.34 percent) is anticipated to be the area of the country that will experience the highest average delinquency rates in 2008, while North Dakota is forecasted to show the lowest levels of delinquency.

Overview of U.S. Consumer Credit Status -- 4th Quarter 2007

The mortgage delinquency statistics, coupled with bank card and auto delinquency information released earlier this month on TransUnion.com, present an overarching credit picture of the U.S. consumer in the 4th quarter of 2007 and highlight geographic areas of concern. Statistics of note and forecasts for the auto and bank card sectors were as follows:

-- Average credit card debt per bankcard user nationally rose
4.81 percent from the previous quarter to $1,694.
-- Credit card loan delinquency (the percentage of bankcard users 90 or
more days past due) hit a national average of 1.36 percent in the
fourth quarter, up 32.04 percent over the previous period.
-- The national 90-day bankcard user delinquency rate is expected to
climb to 1.9 percent by year end from 1.36 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2007.
-- Average auto debt per auto loan borrower nationally rose 0.13 percent
in the fourth quarter to $12,738.
-- Auto loan delinquency (the percentage of auto loan borrowers 60 or
more days past due) was highest in Louisiana at 1.44 percent, followed
closely by Mississippi at 1.43 percent. The lowest auto loan
delinquency rates were found in Alaska (0.16 percent), North Dakota
(0.40 percent) and Wyoming (0.47 percent).
-- The national 60-day auto borrower delinquency rate is expected to
continue to rise 33 percent throughout 2008 from 0.79 percent in
fourth quarter 2007 to 1.05 percent by year end.

Additional information and statistics on the bankcard sector can be found at: http://newsroom.transunion.com/index.php?s=43&item=467

Additional information and statistics on the automotive sector can be found at: http://newsroom.transunion.com/index.php?s=43&item=469

(Related Graphs: http://newsroom.transunion.com/index.php?s=98)
(MP3 File Sound bites: http://newsroom.transunion.com/index.php?s=102)

TransUnion's Trend Data database

The source of the underlying data used for this analysis is TransUnion's Trend Data, a one-of-a-kind database consisting of 27 million anonymous consumer records randomly sampled every quarter from TransUnion's national consumer credit database. Each record contains more than 200 credit variables that illustrate consumer credit usage and performance. Since 1992, TransUnion has been aggregating this information at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), state and national levels.

About TransUnion

As a global leader in credit and information management, TransUnion creates advantages for millions of people around the world by gathering, analyzing and delivering information. For businesses, TransUnion helps improve efficiency, manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by delivering comprehensive data and advanced analytics and decisioning. For consumers, TransUnion provides the tools, resources and education to help manage their credit health and achieve their financial goals. Through these and other efforts, TransUnion is working to build stronger economies worldwide. Founded in 1968 and headquartered in Chicago, TransUnion employs more than 3,600 employees in 25 countries on five continents. http://www.transunion.com/

Source: TransUnion

CONTACT: Dave Blumberg of TransUnion, +1-312-985-3059,
dblumbe@transunion.com

Web site: http://www.transunion.com/
http://newsroom.transunion.com/