Philadelphia Fed`s Survey of Professional Forecasters Focuses on House Prices

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its Survey of Professional Forecasters today, which provides projections on a broad range of macroeconomic variables, including economic growth, inflation, and employment.

Panelists also responded to special questions about house prices using several measures, including the S&P/Case-Schiller home price index, the OFHEO purchase only index, and the OFHEO house price index. In addition, the panelists were asked to predict the specific quarter and year when house prices will stop declining. To see the survey results, go to: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/econ/spf/index.cfm. This web page also provides documentation, the mean and median forecasts of all the respondents, as well as the individual responses from each participant.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey, which began in 1968, was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Philadelphia Fed took over the survey in 1990. The third quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters will be released on Tuesday, August 12, 2008.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. One of the 12 regional banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.

Contact:
Name: Marilyn Wimp
Phone: 215-574-4197
www.philadelphiafed.org